Austin’s Housing Market Sees a Dip: What It Means for Homeowners and Buyers

Most important things you should know about the March housing market.

Today I’m sharing the top three takeaways from the end-of-Q1 numbers and discussing how the market went exactly as we predicted months ago. 

First, overall prices are down about 15%, which is a $100,000 drop from the peak of the market a year ago for median prices in Austin, Texas. This is the correction we knew was coming, with interest rates stabilizing and home values starting to follow suit. In some cases, we're even seeing prices going up.

Second, homes that are priced well are still selling, and sellers just need to be serious, motivated, willing to follow their Realtor's advice to get the property ready for the market, and willing to make some concessions. Pivoting with the market and adjusting to it will keep you from having to sit on the market for months at a time.

“This is the market buyers have been waiting for.”

Third, buyers, this is the bottom of the market you've been waiting for. Take advantage of the stabilized interest rates and home prices while the inventory is still somewhat limited. If the inventory continues to be limited and interest rates continue to soften, the market will pick back up. This is the perfect time for first-time and move-up buyers to purchase a home. Let us know if you’re thinking about making your move, so we can discuss how you can get great deals and interest rates.

Yes, our market is dropping, but it's still a good time to sell. In fact, this is the market you've been waiting for. Call or email us if you need someone to guide you with your real estate goals.

Discover the Secrets to Successfully Protesting Your Property Taxes

We can help you get the right information to protest your property taxes.

Did you know that this is the year to protest your property taxes? With the market dropping about 15% year over year, this is the time to push back against the county and get your property tax bill to go down. To help you do this, we’re sharing a few things you should know. 

First, know that you can do it yourself online on the county's website, or you can hire an agency to do it on your behalf. We prefer to hire an agency because it's a lot of work, and we want to make sure it’s done correctly and that we save the most amount of money possible. 

Secondly, make sure to contact us to have us put together a comparable market analysis for you to use in your protest. Those haven’t mattered as much in the last five years, but now they matter again. Things have changed dramatically in Austin, so it’s time to push back, and we can give you the concrete proof that you need.

“Now is the time to push back against the county and get your property tax bill down.”

Lastly, we highly recommend using a professional. We use Home Tax Shield and wholeheartedly endorse them. You can click here to learn more about their services. Plus, they donate to one of our favorite causes in Austin, the Community First Village. Just make sure to act before May 15. 

Don’t forget that you can reach out to us for help with the comparative market analysis and much more. And as always, we would love to help you buy, sell, or invest in Austin. You can call or email us anytime, and we look forward to hearing from you.

Seasonality and Cyclicality of the Market

Our market naturally moves in both seasons and cycles.

Much like most things in life, real estate moves in both seasons and cycles. Let’s begin by talking about the seasonality of our market.

This is especially important right now because we are heading into a season that is traditionally slower. There are other factors, of course, that are slowing things down, like interest rates, inflation, and the stock market, but this period is just naturally slower. However, believe it or not, sales tend to pick up a little bit during the holidays since children are out of school and people need to move for work reasons. Further, you’ll see another uptick in the new year with people moving for their New Year's resolutions.

From there, the market is a little quiet, with people going out of town for spring break, but it explodes again after that. This is a time when the market has more opportunities for buyers but is also a little more competitive.

Finally, we head into the summer, and while many people tend to move during the summer, the high heat and children returning to school can close that season early. 

"We are heading into a season that is traditionally slower."

So we are here in the Fall, and that is a season that is especially good for investors. Home sellers are typically more willing to negotiate in this season, particularly those who listed in the summer and have sat on the market for a little bit.

This is the seasonality of our market. The cyclicality is a little bit different. When we say that the market is cyclical, we mean to say that the market goes through seven to ten-year upticks, followed by a one- to two-year correction. That’s what we are seeing right now, where even though there are other factors like interest rates driving things down, it’s also a natural slowing of the market. In fact, the correction is even a little bit overdue, with all of the unnatural stimuli we’ve seen in the market. 

What does this mean for you? You should give me a call or an email, and we can discuss your particular situation. I’d be delighted to help you out.

November 2018 Market Report - Austin home prices are up 5.5% Year over Year

November 2018 Market Report - Austin home prices are up 5.5% Year over Year

We are nearing the end of the year and sales are still seeing positive trends with 2018 shaping up to be another record setting year.

Sales in City of Austin proper are still very strong with the median home price up 5.5% to $374,900 from last November . With 618 homes sold in November (down 5%) and only 1.9 month’s of housing inventory, Austin is still firmly in an Extreme Seller’s Market.

The rest of the Central Texas market is starting to see a slight slow down in sales with 2.7 month’s of housing inventory, up .2 month’s from last year. With slightly more housing inventory and homes taking a little longer to sell (average of 64 days on the market, up 3 days from last year) we may start to see home prices outside the city limits slow down. Right now, prices are still up (median home price is $301,391, up 2% YoY), homes sell are up (2,201 homes sold in November, up 1% YoY) and $839M in sales volume, up 6% Year-over-Year.

In summary,

SELLERS are in all parts of the market are still in a strong position to net top dollar on their home. Buyers have high expectations for what they are buying since it is starting to cost more per month for the same home with interest rates going up from 3.5% to 4.75-5% in just over a year.

BUYERS are starting to see slightly less competition for homes in the suburbs and outlying cities. The best homes are still selling fast and for top dollar, but there are starting to be more “Deals” out there.

INVESTORS are having to be patient while looking for the best deals and act fast when they come up. Income properties are harder to come by. Foreclosures are up slightly. Look to the smaller markets outside of Austin for the best investments.

See below for infographics and analysis of all parts of our Central Texas Real Estate Market.

And as always, please contact us if you or anyone you know needs help buying, selling or investing in real estate in 2019!

Here is the Press Release from the Austin Board of Realtors with the rest of the market update for November 2018. 

AUSTIN, TX–As single-family home sales continue to rise, another record-breaking year is expected for the Austin-area housing market, according to the latest monthly report from the Austin Board of REALTORS®. The November 2018 Central Texas Housing Market Report released today suggests another strong showing for the region.

"Sales are up 3.3 percent year-to-date for 2018,” Steve Crorey, president of the Austin Board of REALTORS®, said. “Pending sales volume in December, the Central Texas housing market is on track to have one of the highest-grossing years on record."

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

In the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), sales volume slightly increased 0.7 percent year over year from 2,185 sales in November 2017 to 2,201 sales last month. Sales dollar volume increased 5.6 percent year over year to $839,317,911, while the median home price increased 2.2 percent year over year to $301,391.

New listings for the five-county MSA increased 1.7 percent year over year to 2,380 listings in November. During the same period, active listings increased 11.5 percent to 6,907 listings and pending sales increased 2.5 percent to 2,217 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory increased by 0.2 months to 2.7 months of inventory.

"Families and young professionals continue to move to the suburbs where there are more opportunities for home ownership at a more reasonable price point than in the city of Austin," Crorey said. "While home sales growth isn't as rapid in the city, demand is still strong. Analysts predict Austin will be a market to watch in 2019."

City of Austin

In the city of Austin, home sales decreased 5.4 percent year over year from 653 sales in November 2017 to 618 sales last month. During the same period, sales dollar volume remained flat at $288,251,771. The median price of single-family homes rose 5 percent to $374,900. New listings decreased 3.9 percent to 697 listings; active listings decreased 2.4 percent to 1,487 listings; and pending sales decreased 4.6 percent to 638 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory decreased by 0.1 months to 1.9 months of inventory.

Travis County

In Travis County, November single-family home sales slightly decreased 0.5 percent year over year to 1,029 home sales, but sales dollar volume increased 5 percent to $474,252,517. The median price for single-family homes rose 5.4 percent to $355,000. During the same period, new listings decreased 0.9 percent to 1,189 listings; active listings increased 2.7 percent to 3,112 listings; and pending sales increased 0.8 percent to 1,058 pending sales. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.1 months year over year to 2.4 months of inventory.

Williamson County

In November, Williamson County single-family home sales increased 4.5 percent to 812 home sales and sales dollar volume increased 4.9 percent to $246,902,818 since last November. During the same period, the median price for single-family homes increased 1.8 percent to $280,000. New listings increased 4.9 percent to 798 listings; active listings jumped 20.8 percent to 2,449 listings; and pending sales decreased 2.6 percent to 764 pending sales. Housing inventory increased 0.3 months year over year to 2.7 months of inventory.

Hays County

Hays County single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to 269 sales in November, and sales dollar volume spiked 18.6 percent to $94,305,038. The median price for a single-family home increased 2.8 percent to $262,047. During the same period, new listings increased 7.3 percent to 281 listings; active listings experienced a double-digit increase of 15.9 percent to 950 listings; and pending sales increased 21.1 percent to 287 pending sales. Housing inventory increased 0.3 months to 3.2 months of inventory.

July 2018 Market Report - Single-family home sales experience double-digit growth

July 2018 Market Report - Single-family home sales experience double-digit growth

Summer is over and the market has started to enter it's cooling off period. School is starting, Football season is right around the corner and Austin is in need of a much needed break from the heat. The same goes for the Hotter than Hot real estate market that reached new highs for the month of July. 

Here is a quick snapshot of what happened in July 2018:

The Median home price for Central Austin (which includes the entire 5 county MSA) is $320,000, up 6% year over year. The volume of sales has also increased by 9%, up to 3,103 homes sold in July. The average days on market (44) and the total supply of homes (2.9 months of inventory) has stayed somewhat flat. However, with fewer homes coming on the market than last year and more homes selling, our market is continuing to tighten up with demand far exceeding supply. 

Here is the Press Release from the Austin Board of Realtors with the rest of the market update for July 2018. 

AUSTIN, TX– Strong homebuying activity throughout the summer led to double-digit home sales growth in July, according to the July 2018 Central Texas Housing Market Report released today by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. The five-county Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) experienced the highest volume of home sales since July 2011, and the highest median home price on record for any month.

“Strong pending sales activity in June contributed to a big uptick in home sales growth last month, and pending sales growth was strong again in July, too,” Steve Crorey, 2018 president of the Austin Board of REALTORS®, said. “This means we could see another uptick in home sales growth in August to end the summer selling season on a high note.”

In the city of Austin, single-family home sales experienced a double-digit increase of 13.5 percent year over year to 952 sales, while sales dollar volume increased 19.8 percent to $451,315,853 in July.

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
In the Austin-Round Rock MSA, July single-family home sales increased 8.8 percent year over year to 3,103 sales, while sales dollar volume increased 13.7 percent to $1,254,255,680. The median home price increased six percent year over year to a record-breaking $320,000.

For the second month in a row, pending sales growth experienced strong gains across the MSA, increasing 8.3 percent year over year to 3,201 pending sales in June and 10.8 percent to 3,065 pending sales in July. However, the number of homes on the market fell during the same time frame. In July, active listings for the five-county MSA fell 2.7 percent to 7,522 listings and new listings decreased 1.2 percent to 3,738 listings.

“Housing construction is at an all-time high in Central Texas, but the pace of new housing stock entering the market can’t justify last month’s jump in sales growth on its own. These gains in home sales activity are being driven by pure demand,” Vaike O’Grady, Austin regional director for Metrostudy, said.

“Home sales are up across the board in the Austin area, but declines in housing inventory are almost just as steep. The city of Austin, in particular, lost almost half a month of inventory from July 2017 to July 2018. That's a lot of inventory to lose year over year,” Crorey said. “ABoR housing market data underscores not only the ongoing strong housing demand in our region, but the critical need for more housing stock at all price points in and around Austin.”

City of Austin

In the city of Austin, the July median price for a single-family home increased six percent year over year to $390,000. During the same time frame, new listings decreased seven percent to 1,066 listings; active listings decreased 13.8 percent to 1,675 listings; and pending sales rose 11.6 percent to 904 sales. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.4 months to 2.1 months, well below the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University’s benchmark of 6.0 months as a balanced housing market.

Travis County

In Travis County, July single-family home sales increased 15.7 percent year over year to 1,594 home sales, while sales dollar volume increased 17.5 percent to $769,540,765. The median price for single-family homes grew 4.5 percent to $375,000. During the same period, new listings remained relatively flat, with a 0.3 percent increase to 1,854 listings. Active listings decreased 7.8 percent to 3,543 listings, while pending sales jumped 12.3 percent to 1,503 sales. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.3 months year over year to 2.8 months of inventory.

Williamson County

In Williamson County, July single-family home sales increased 5.7 percent year over year to 1,054 home sales, while sales dollar volume increased 7.7 percent to $326,159,581. During the same period, the median price for single-family homes increased 2.1 percent to $280,734. New listings decreased 6.5 percent to 1,204 listings; active listings decreased 2.1 percent to 2,497 listings; and pending sales rose 10.6 percent to 1,055 pending sales. Housing inventory decreased 0.2 months year over year to 2.8 months of inventory.

Hays County

In July 2018, Hays County single-family home sales rose 2.7 percent to 347 sales, while sales dollar volume slightly decreased, with a 0.6 percent decrease to $113,218,199. Median price decreased three percent year over year to $265,000. During the same time frame, new listings remained relatively flat, with a 0.2 percent increase to 478 listings; active listings increased 5.9 percent to 1,045 listings; and pending sales rose 6.1 percent to 366 sales. Housing inventory increased 0.1 months to 3.6 months of inventory.