2018 Austin Mid Year Market Update

Welcome to the second half of 2018! 

The Austin real estate market has been experiencing some new highs and just a few indicators of a possible shift. We have decided to take a new approach to interpreting the data. We are including the Austin Board of Realtors entire Press Release here. I will be adding my thoughts and commentary in BOLD Italic. 

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Austin Board of REALTORS® releases June & Midyear 2018 Central Texas Housing Market Report

AUSTIN, TX– Single-family home sales in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) experienced strong and steady growth in the first half of this year but declined in June 2018, according to the June & Midyear 2018 Central Texas Housing Market Report released today by the Austin Board of REALTORS®. In the first half of the year, area home prices continued to increase and housing inventory levels slowly declined amidst strong housing demand.

“Despite a decline in home sales volume across Central Texas in June, 2018 is on track to be another record-setting year for the region’s housing market,” Steve Crorey, 2018 president of the Austin Board of REALTORS®, said. “Consecutive years of record-breaking sales activity have set the bar incredibly high, and it’s important to remember that we’re comparing June 2018 figures to that strong activity. The Central Texas housing market remains strong and continues to move at a demanding pace.”

The slow down in sales is purely Supply-driven. Fewer people are putting their homes on the market, so there are fewer sales. Buyer demand remains at a record high. 

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
In the five-county MSA, single-family home sales increased 3.7 percent year-over-year to 15,364 home sales, while the median home price increased 4.3 percent year-over-year to $313,000. The volume of homes on the market declined year-to-date, although pending sales activity increased during the same time frame. From January to June 2018, active listings fell 0.8 percent to 5,951 listings; new listings decreased 0.6 percent to 21,795 listings; and pending sales rose 4.8 percent to 17,008 sales. Sales dollar volume in the Austin-Round Rock MSA was $6,025,035,605—an 8.2 percent increase from the first six months of 2017.

In June 2018, single-family home sales activity declined 2.7 percent year-over-year to 3,299 sales. During the same period, the median price for a single-family home rose 4.9 percent year-over-year to $326,250. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.1 months year-over-year to 2.9 months, well below the Real Estate Center of Texas A&M University’s benchmark of 6.0 months as a balanced housing market. While home sales decreased across the MSA in June, this is not indicative of a declining housing market, suggested Jim Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

“The Central Texas housing market is among the top three in the country. The region’s population growth, particularly along the I-35 corridor, is fueled by diversified economic opportunities that bring jobs, new businesses, and resources across multiple industries,” he said. “Strong population growth and home sales activity are expected to continue in the Central Texas region for the rest of the year and into 2019.”

Our overall market is still experiencing contracted inventory and increased demand. Buyers are either paying more for homes or buying new construction homes further outside of the city. 

City of Austin
In the city of Austin, single-family home sales in the first half of the year edged upward 1.3 percent year-over-year to 4,757 sales and the median price for a single-family home increased 3 percent to $375,760. During the same period, active listings decreased 10.1 percent to 1,279 listings; new listings decreased 3.9 percent to 6,458 listings; and pending sales rose 2.7 percent to 5,248 sales.

City of Austin home sales have not experienced a year-over-year decrease in the month of June since 2013. Austin home sales decreased 4.5 percent to 988 home sales and median price dipped 0.4 percent to $388,000. Housing inventory also decreased 0.3 months to 2.1 months of inventory. However, homes spent six fewer days on the market in 2018 than the previous June, averaging 30 days on the market.

We are seeing a slight housing price correction in the City of Austin. Appraisers and banks are being more conservative to stave off a bubble. Median prices also could be going down slightly because there is even more activity below that price where there is more affordability as prices continue to rise. 

Travis County
In Travis County, single-family home sales increased 3.8 percent year-over-year to 7,675 home sales in the first half of the year. During the same time frame, the median price for single-family homes grew 3.6 percent to $362,500. Active listings decreased 6.1 percent to 2,796 listings; new listings decreased 1.2 percent to 10,977 listings; and pending sales increased 6 percent to 8,587 sales.

In June 2018, single-family home sales decreased 2 percent to 1,651 home sales, while median price increased 1.2 percent to $374,500. Monthly housing inventory decreased 0.2 months to 2.8 months of inventory.

Williamson County
In Williamson County, single-family home sales in the first half of 2018 increased 5.2 percent year-over-year to 5,333 home sales. During the same period, the median price for single-family homes increased 3.7 percent to $286,900. Active listings increased 5.2 percent to 2,033 listings; new listings decreased 0.8 percent to 7,303 listings; and pending sales rose 4.7 percent to 5,832 sales.

In June 2018, single-family homes sales dipped 1.7 percent year-over-year to 1,143 sales, while the median price rose 4.7 percent to $300,000. During the same time frame, housing inventory declined 0.1 months to 2.8 months of inventory.

Hays County
In the first half of 2018, Hays County single-family home sales rose 2.6 percent year-over-year to 1,721 home sales, while median price increased 3.3 percent year-over-year to $264,900. New listings increased 2.2 percent to 2,536 listings and active listings increased 1.9 percent year-over-year to 799 listings. During the same time frame, pending sales rose 4.4 percent to 1,907 sales.

In June 2018, single-family home sales decreased 7.1 percent year-over-year to 369 sales, while median price increased 7.5 percent year-over-year to $284,900. During the same time frame, housing inventory increased 0.1 months to 3.4 months of inventory.

With new listings increasing in Hays and Williamson County, more people are willing to sell and move up or move closer in with the higher values of their homes. This trend will continue with affordability continuing to be an issue within Austin City Limits. 

To find out what your home is worth in today's market or ask any related housing question, please don't hesitate to reach out to us at BIRDHOME---home@birdhome.com or call (512) 596-2035.